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RUGBY UNION - This Weekend's Guinness Premiership
By Betting Zone February 29 2008
Leicester's defeat at Welford Road against Sale last weekend meant that not only do Gloucester extend their lead at the top of the table to five points after their victory against Newcastle, but Bath and Sale are now hot on the tail of the Tigers, with Steve Meehan's men on the same points and the Sharks only two points behind them.
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With Saracens only three points behind Sale, it should be the most exciting climax to the Premiership in recent years. This is reflected in the betting for the regular season where four sides are still in single figures to top the league, though Gloucester are a shade of odds-on in a place.

With both Gloucester and Leicester faltering in recent weeks, the door has been left open for Sale to make some serious inroads into their lead and Philippe Saint-Andre's men are certainly the form team at the moment. They have the momentum going and because they have made Edgeley Park into a fortress again, I would not be surprised to see them go on and top this year's league - although the European Challenge Cup will probably distract them somewhat.

At the bottom, there's a bit of a gap appearing between Leeds and Worcester and the men from Headingley now find themselves six points adrift and have shown no signs of making any of that up in recent weeks. Hence, the layers make Leeds around 1/10 to go down, though 1/7 is still available with Betfred. Carnegie have played some good stuff this season but their inability to win games has cost them dear and with Worcester picking up bonus points in recent games, Leeds are staring down the barrel of a gun right now.

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SALE v WORCESTER (Friday, 19.45)

Sale return to Edgeley Park this weekend knowing that their win against Leicester at Welford Road has done their Premiership season the power of good. The Sharks are now only two points behind the Tigers with a game in hand and Philippe Saint-Andre will be targeting a bonus point win against Worcester on Friday night. Sale's only loss in their last ten games was against London Irish back at the beginning of January and they are ten from ten at Edgeley Park this season. Worcester have been struggling as much as Leeds have to win games but picked up their sixth bonus point of the season against London Irish last Friday and it is these six points that keep them clear of the drop-zone. Sale have a wealth of talent to choose from on Friday night when their internationals return and having beaten Worcester in front of the Sky cameras back in November at Sixways, they will fancy their chances of doing so again here. I'm not entirely sure Sale will manage to get the bonus point on Friday night as they have struggled to do so in the past at Edgeley Park, but the boot of Charlie Hodgson is lethal in Stockport and should be enough to give Sale yet another win on their home turf.

Verdict: Sale by fourteen

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NEWCASTLE v WASPS (Friday, 20.00)

Although both of these sides won't be proud of their current positions in the Guinness Premiership, both have hit a little bit of form in recent weeks, which makes Friday's fixture at Kingston Park one of the more interesting ones of the weekend. The Falcons have won six of their last seven in Newcastle in all competitions, including victories in the Premiership over Worcester and Saracens. Wasps have also won their last two games in the Premiership and have picked up a bonus point in both, which has helped their slim chances of reaching the play-off spots. Kingston Park hasn't been a happy hunting ground for Wasps in recent seasons, with Ian McGeechan's men losing on the last three times they have visited the north east. However, Wasps can claim bragging rights over Newcastle this season as they have beaten them twice - once in the Premiership and the other in the EDF Energy Cup. All in all, this is quite a tricky game to weigh up. On the one hand, Newcastle are playing some good stuff at the moment and pushed Gloucester very close last weekend - the return of Wilkinson, Flood and Noon can only help as well. However, Wasps have looked somewhere near their brilliant best in recent games and when they are in this mood, they can be unstoppable at times. I think Wasps will either win this one well or Newcastle will just shade it. I couldn't play in this game but it certainly should be a good game and one that could shape the rest of the season for both sides.

Verdict: Wasps by six

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LONDON IRISH v SARACENS (Saturday, 13.30)

Sarries' Premiership charge has fallen by the wayside of late and last weekend's home defeat at the hands of Harlequins has seen them drop out of the top four for the first time in several weeks. They are now three points behind Sale in fifth and with Sale and Bath still in good form, Saracens need to turn their season around quickly if they to avoid yet another frustrating near miss. Irish are the form team in the Premiership at the moment, having picked up 21 points from their last six matches. They have won their last four in a row - including over Sale - and this is in stark contrast to Saracens who have lost their last two and look very shaky. History dictates that Sarries should have a chance in this game, as they've won their last three against the Exiles - including at Vicarage Road at the beginning of the season. However, everything seems to have clicked with Irish at the moment and only a fool would think about opposing them this weekend. Saracens have not been the greatest away from home and I probably would have picked Irish to win this at the turn of the year so with Sarries in such poor form of late, Irish can make it five out of five with another win here.

Verdict: Irish by seven

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HARLEQUINS v GLOUCESTER (Saturday, 14.45)

Quins shocked Saracens last weekend and have now won two successive Guinness Premiership games - the other being against Worcester. Although they were put in their place in the Heineken Cup, Quins haven't really had a bad season but they did hit a rut just before Christmas but their two wins in recent games will have buoyed them considerably and they will now fancy their chances of upsetting league leaders Gloucester - especially as their home record is pretty decent. The Cherry and Whites got back to winning way last weekend with a hard fought victory over Newcastle at Kingsholm which - due to Leicester's surprise defeat to Sale - puts them five points clear at the top of the table. Gloucester can put their lofty position in the league down to the fact that they have picked up a point in every league game since the end of 2006, which is some record. Although Quins have bounced back to form, I'm not sure they have the arsenal to deal with Gloucester this weekend and although the game might be tight and Quins may pick up a bonus point, I would be surprised to see them win here.

Verdict: Gloucester by five

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LEICESTER v LEEDS (Saturday, 15.00)

Leicester's defeat to Sale at Welford Road last weekend means they are in the uncomfortable position of playing catch up to Gloucester whilst at the same time having Sale and Bath breathing down their necks. They've now lost two on the bounce but haven't lost three in a row since the 2003/04 season - but with Leeds in opposition, I can't see this being equalled this weekend. Leeds need to start winning to catch up with Worcester, as they're not going to manage it through bonus points but their fixture list from now until the end of the season in tricky and it looks to all extents and purposes like they are down. However, they won't stop fighting until the fight is done (to paraphrase Eliot Ness) and are likely to give their all against Leicester on Saturday. Having said all that, it shouldn't be good enough and one point from their last eight matches says all you need to know about the Yorkshiremen's chances this weekend. Leicester will be smarting from last weekend's defeat to Sale and this could spell disaster for Leeds.

Verdict: Leicester by twenty-two

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BRISTOL v BATH (Sunday, 15.00)

Sunday's sole game sees a west country derby as Bristol host Bath at Ashton Gate. Bristol have only won one of their last five in all competitions but that was against Gloucester in the Guinness Premiership so Bath better be on their guard as Richard Hill's men are pretty good in these sort of affairs. Although their recent record is not so good, Bristol are actually unbeaten in their last five at home, which doesn't account for a lot given that they were at the Memorial Stadium but they seem in rude form in the Bristol area, which has to count for something! Bath had had a slight wobble in the Premiership, suffering back to back victories, but they bounced back to form last weekend to record a victory over Leeds and with Leicester losing, Steve Meehan's men will fancy their chances of getting back to the top of the table. Bath won when the two sides met at the Rec back in November but have not won in Bristol since 1998, which is an incredible statistic. Therefore, it would be foolish to side with Bath this weekend, as stats like this have a habit of staying firm - especially in local derbies. As ever, I expect the match to be close, but Bristol - with home advantage - should just shade it.

Verdict: Bristol by four

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By Bettingzone.co.uk
Used with permission.

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